Seeing the PlanB tweet:
and reviewing "The Shorts" gives me some peace of mind that they are closing them, it can be an indication of a tenuous lateralization or market recovery.
I am not sure why would the green phase be so abortive in this bull run.
In 2016-2017 it lasted for more than a year.
In other words: I doubt that we are in the "orange" stage, but who knows.
Maybe, we are front-running the whole trend while we were behind the "true" trend in 2015-2016.
The pattern this year breaks with previous years, so it's not relevant. The problem was the exponential spike to 13k+ ..these sort of spikes always end bull runs.
A quick resumption of the bull phase is a lot less likely now (not impossible of course). On balance, either there is a new bear market atm, or the recovery is going to be slow. I haven't seen anything to change my opinion of early July, when price was 11k+ .
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51679151#msg51679151Gosh Majormax, you easily revert, as a kind of default, into bear thinking, and maybe those understandings of the market come from traditional thinkings regarding what is a bull market and what is a bear market, and I really doubt that it is helpful to allow such flopping thinking about what kind of market bitcoin is in.
Of course, for short-term traders, there can be considerable value to attempt to accurately call short term BTC price moves, but you are not a short-term trader, at least that is what you had asserted, so I will take you at your word that you are genuine in your perceptions of the market and that you are not talking any kind of book.
Point is, like hairy (or not hairy as recent reports have disclosed) mentioned, we have already had a 44% correction in this market, and surely we could experience some additional correction before resuming UP, but even earlier you had acknowledged that sometimes corrections can be greater than 50% and NOT take BTC out of its bear market - though I understand that if you say something two months ago, that same something (at least price wise) has a different impact if it happens quickly (earlier) or if it drags out a lot longer (and BTC prices slowly bleed down to sub $7k prices (which would also be about a 50% price correction).
You also seem to have acknowledge that about 6-8 weeks after BTC prices breaking above $4,200 and just continuing to move upwards and even getting well into the mid to upper $7ks had made it much more likely that even if we were not in a bullrun, the bottom ($3,122) was quite more likely to be in (meaning that we were out of the bear cycle).
Personally, I am NOT going to be so easily rattled back and forth between bear and bull and back to bear because, surely there should be nothing remarkable that a 3.5x price increase in less than 3 months could end up causing a BTC price correction that is greater or drags out longer than usual and still not take us out of our previous entrance into a bull market.
Anyhow, I am just saying that you blow in the direction of the wind too much, with all due respect. No homo.
Comparing with previous years charts is now a more precarious business, because there is now a new pattern emerging, unlike most previous phases.
Surely, I am no BIG fan of placing too much emphasis of these fractal patterns, but a decent amount of deviation to the upside (which would have been our April/June 3.5x price rise), and a thereafter price correction which merely brings BTC prices back to the lines of the fractal pattern (which would kind of be where we are at now, except that we are still a bit higher than the fractal pattern lines) should have been more of a legitimization of the fractal pattern rather than a discarding of the relevance of such fractal pattern. Are you smoking something, Majormax? Just curious.
(if so, can I have some of dat) 
Maybe I am missing something but that sounds like a variation, not a completely different model
Of course, Hairy (aka not hairy) already has gotten this point covered. No rock not covered or eye not dotted.
Poll
